Tropics begin to awaken; after slow summer, forecasters expect 6 to 10 hurricanes

It has been nearly two months since a tropical system stirred the Atlantic Ocean, but forecasters are keeping an eye on the tropics as they begin to awaken.

A disturbance in the central Atlantic about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean is moving westward.

The disturbance has about a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical system over the next couple of days and an 80 percent chance of forming in the next five days.

Early indications are the storm will turn toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later in the week and pass northeast of the Bahamas by Labor Day.

From there, it is projected to curve out to sea and miss South Carolina and the entire United States, although the storm is still over a week away and its projected path could change.

There are three other potential areas of development in the Atlantic. None are expected to become tropical systems over the next five days.

This has been the quietest Atlantic hurricane season through Aug. 30 since 1982. Strong wind shear and dry air across the central and eastern Atlantic have kept storms from forming thus far.

Unless a tropical system forms by the time the calendar flips to September, it will be the first time since 1960 without a single named storm in August.

Eleven tropical systems formed during this same time period last year.

In 2020, 14 had already formed by this time of the year. That was a record year for storms.

Experts warn that it’s premature to conclude the hurricane season will continue to be mild this year. The season typically peaks in early to mid-September and ends in November.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is still predicting 6 to 10 Atlantic hurricanes, compared to the norm of seven. They can come quickly in September, when ocean water is at its warmest.

The increase in activity in the Atlantic can serve as a good reminder for individuals about the importance of being prepared for storms.

Among things individuals should have ready before severe weather hits:

• A communications plan for the family. Include pets in your emergency plans. If microchipped, ensure registration information is current.

• Emergency supplies in place at home, at work and in the car.

• The ability to listen to local officials and the National Weather Service for local updates regarding watches and warnings.