An area of disturbed weather off the South Carolina coast that caught the watchful eye of the National Hurricane Center has dissipated.
However, an area hundreds of miles out in the Atlantic Ocean is now being watched for potential tropical development over the next week.
The NHC on Wednesday was watching a tropical wave located just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands for possible development. It’s moving westward to west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic.
The NHC says it’s highly unlikely the wave will become a tropical system by Friday morning. There is a 30 percent chance of tropical formation over the next seven days.
Over the past few weeks, the NHC has had its eye on two potential disturbances.
One was near Bermuda and initially forecast to move due west toward the South Carolina coast. On Wednesday morning, that system had all but dissipated. It has since disappeared from the NHC tracking map.
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Another system forecast to head toward the Caribbean also dissipated before it was able to form.
Thus far, the Atlantic hurricane season has had five storms. Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed in June, Don formed in July, and an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January that was retroactively upgraded by the National Hurricane Center in May.
Bret brought gusty winds and heavy rains to the Windward Islands, with its center passing just north of Barbados. The storm damaged or destroyed several homes there, according to news reports.
Hurricane forecasters expect a more unpredictable and more active than average Atlantic hurricane season despite the formation of El Niño.
El Niño conditions typically help suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear across the Atlantic basin. El Niño can also increase the amount of sinking motion, which brings more atmospheric stability.
The Colorado State University tropical forecast team is forecasting 18 storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes and four of which will reach at least Category 3 status.
This is an increase of two hurricanes and one major hurricane from a previous outlook released by the group in early June. The increase in storms and the overall outlook takes into account the storms that have already occurred this year.
The Atlantic hurricane season historically begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, though tropical systems have been known to form outside of the season.
Closer to home, the forecast for the Orangeburg area calls for hot and dry conditions through the coming week. Temperatures are forecast to soar to the upper 90s with only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms forecast for Sunday.
Contact the writer: gzaleski@timesanddemocrat.com or 803-533-5551. Check out Zaleski on Twitter at @ZaleskiTD.
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