Does Nikki Haley stand a chance?

CONCORD, New Hampshire — Secretary of State David Scanlon recently predicted a record-breaking turnout of 322,000 voters for New Hampshire’s 2024 Republican presidential primary.

Voter turnout faltered in 2020 with incumbent Donald Trump running for a re-election bid, dropping about 130,000 from the previous election cycle.

As the New Hampshire primary  approaches, the narrowing race has left some with hope for other candidates, especially Nikki Haley, but it remains to be seen if voters will actually show up for her.

Chris Galdieri, a political science professor who specializes in the New Hampshire primary, predicts Haley’s momentum will turn lackluster.

“This by far is the lowest energy primary I’ve ever seen,” Galdieri said. “Everything has just sort of been moving at half speed, there are fewer candidates than there were in 2020 and 2016. They’re having fewer events. It’s just usually there’s something in the air by this point. And this one just doesn’t quite have that.”

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has traveled the state with Haley after endorsing her in mid-December. Introducing her at multiple rallies and campaign events, he often praises the momentum the Haley campaign has gained over the past few months.

“It has been fun, but the energy is real. There’s obviously a lot of energy in this room. The energy is real. The momentum is real,” Sununu said at a Manchester rally on Jan. 19.

Sununu placed the low turnout of the Iowa caucus in contrast with the predicted high turnout of Tuesday’s primary. With less than 15% of registered Republicans having participated, the Wall Street Journal said turnout was the lowest it has been in years.

“We’ve always said one of the keys to this race is a really high voter turnout, right? Iowa had like 50,000 people or something vote for Trump out of 3 million. Is that going to dictate the choice of the Republican party in this country?” Sununu said.

New Hampshire consistently has high primary voter turnout, which Galdieri ascribes to the state’s participatory political culture in addition to voting encouraged by media coverage, political advertisements and the national importance of an early primary. Still, Haley’s campaign has failed to leverage substantial traction.

The South Carolina governor has struggled to catch up to Trump in the polls, but New Hampshire is seen as Haley’s best bet in a long-shot race. New Hampshire hosts a semi-open primary where independent voters can cast ballots in either primary.

Haley seems to have engaged some of the state’s most moderate conservatives that identify as independents, and a lot hinges on their vote. With close to 350,000 unregistered voters, New Hampshire’s independents comprise nearly 25% of the state’s population.

A lot of independents seem drawn to Haley out of curiosity.

Joshua Leary, a 28-year-old small business owner and a registered independent, went to Friday’s rally and said it was the first political event he has ever attended.

“She’s someone new other than what we’ve had in the past or have now. If we go back to what we had in the past, it’s just a big pendulum, it goes back and forth, until you decide to end that cycle and change something,” Leary said.

Despite the call for change from Leary and other independents and Republicans leaning toward Haley, Trump still has a strong hold on the GOP.

Haley is challenged with the task of mobilizing the moderate conservatives while also changing the minds of Trump voters who have shifted further right. Curiosity doesn’t seem to be enough for Haley to present a strong enough opposition to Trump.

New Hampshire independents have been labeled as the former U.N. ambassador’s saving grace, but it might not be easy for Haley to persuade left-leaning independents to show up.

“A lot of folks who identify as independents are functionally in terms of how they vote, not actually that different from party members, Galdieri said. “You know, there are a lot of folks who will consistently vote for Republicans or consistently vote for Democrats but don’t want to take that last step of identifying as a member of a party.”

Even if Haley can persuade these voters that she is the better option, can she convince enough of them to show up? With Trump’s nationwide popularity, some voters may have resigned to accept Trump as the nominee and could explain potential low voter turnout.

“Maybe you have a lot of folks who see it as non-competitive, ‘so why bother, we know Trump’s gonna win,'” Galdieri said. “Or maybe there are some Republicans who are just sort of sitting out because they’re not thrilled with their choices.”

The Haley campaign remains confident that enough residents of the Granite State will show up on Tuesday to make a difference.

Mark Croteau, 64, a registered Massachusetts independent, has been volunteering in political campaigns for over 30 years. He is supporting Haley.

Over the past few months, Croteau has helped Haley’s campaign efforts to call eligible New Hampshire Republican primary voters to action and feels his efforts have been successful. If anything, he believes the primary will see high voter turnout.

“I know that a lot of Nikki supporters are gonna come out, but I am also pretty sure that a lot of Trump voters are going to come out. So I think there’ll be a good turnout here in New Hampshire on Tuesday,” Croteau said.