Bamberg, Calhoun, Orangeburg projected to lose thousands of residents

“Not possible,” Orangeburg County Administrator Harold Young said.

The state Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office projects that South Carolina will add another 1 million people between now and 2042. That 19 percent jump will bring the state’s total population to 6.4 million.

During the same period, Orangeburg County’s population is projected to decline 19 percent. The office believes it will decline from 82,259 people to 66,244 people in 2042, a drop of 16,015 residents.

The current population numbers are based on 2023 U.S. Census estimates.

Orangeburg County

Young doesn’t believe the numbers account for the growth Orangeburg County is seeing.

“We have seen a lot of growth in Santee and in other places,” Young said. Currently, about 9,000 houses are listed and ready to be built, with new subdivision developments popping up all over the county.

With an average of two people per household, Young said there could be almost 20,000 more people coming into the county in the next few years.

Orangeburg County has more affordable land than Charleston, Columbia and Lexington, he said. That’s leading to the interest in local housing developments.

“We are seeing a boom in housing growth,” Young said.

Some examples of recent housing or subdivision projects that have come before Orangeburg County Council for approval include:

• Wilder Land Development LLC received initial approval to develop 45 acres of land off of Kennerly Road to build single-family homes.
• Council gave final approval to plans for the construction of 45 farm-style homes on the 68 acres of property on Camp Road, which is off of Kennerly Road.
• Prestwick Development plans to build a three-floor, 40-unit affordable workforce housing development on Russell Street, at the site of the Orangeburg Pecan Company.
• RG Development has plans to build between 200 and 300 homes on two tracts of land totaling 169 acres at U.S. Highway 301 and Roquemore Drive. The land is near Interstate 26.
• D.R. Horton plans to build a 332-home subdivision outside the Town of Elloree.
• There are plans to build a residential development on Bruin Parkway across from Orangeburg-Wilkinson High School’s ball fields. The development, named the Park at Wilkinson, will include 156 single-family homes on 60 acres.

In addition to questioning the projections, Young said he also believes more recent census numbers are not accurate.

“I think those numbers are being used based upon the census done during the height of COVID,” Young said. “Orangeburg County was undercounted during COVID.”

Many people were afraid to engage with census takers during the height of the pandemic and were not counted, Young said. He believes the census also did not capture the transient population.

“People did not even want to touch envelopes during COVID,” Young said.

While he does not believe the population projections, he said the county is working to ensure the figures do not become reality by developing a countywide sustainability plan that will ensure it has a “smart growth” plan going into the future.

“The study will show how we can take advantage of the growth and benefit from it,” he said.

The county continues to work with its Development Commission to attract new companies and highlight the county’s location and workforce.

“We are putting money into infrastructure and creating new opportunities for education,” Young said.

The county is in the process of renovating its S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control building in Holly Hill to make classroom space for Orangeburg-Calhoun Technical College.

“Educational opportunities and workforce training will enhance the county’s workforce, making it more attractive for new companies to locate,” he said.

Orangeburg County has seen its population decline since the 2010 census, when it was at an all-time high of 92,501. The 2020 census calculated a population of 84,223, or a fall of about 9 percent.

Orangeburg County has the 17th-largest population of the state’s 46 counties.

Calhoun County

The state office is projecting Calhoun County’s population will decline almost 16 percent by 2042.

The county currently has an estimated 14,080 residents. It’s projected to lose 2,212 residents by 2024, leaving it with 11,868.

Calhoun County saw its population reach high of 15,185 in 2000 before declining slightly to 15,175 in 2010.

Calhoun County was the 43rd most populous of the state’s 46 counties in July 2023.

County Administrator John McLauchlin questions the accuracy both of the 2020 census and the projections.

“From what I have read and understand, I do not believe the final results of the 2020 census numbers are accurate and was undercounted,” McLauchlin said. “This was due to a number of unprecedented challenges and issues so, therefore, I do not know the accuracy or validity of those projections.”

“With the natural growth that we have been seeing in Calhoun County and surrounding counties, I can’t help but think that those projections for Calhoun County will be incorrect by 2042,” McLauchlin said.

McLauchlin said there are ways to ensure the projections do not become reality, such as “smart diversified growth.”

“We are currently and have been seeing population growth through migration into Calhoun County primarily in residential and industrial,” he said.

“This natural growth is what we believe is due to our rural nature with little congestion, reasonable tax base/utility rates and our location … being sandwiched between larger urbanized markets,” McLauchlin said.

Bamberg County

The Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office is projecting Bamberg County’s population will decline by 38 percent by 2042. The population is projected to decline from 12,629 to 7,806, a drop of 4,823 people.

Fairfield County is also expected to see a 38 percent drop.

Only Allendale County is projected to see a larger percentage drop at 50 percent over this time period.

If this comes true, only Allendale County will have a smaller population than Bamberg County in 2024.

Bamberg County Administrator Joey Preston said projections are just projections.

“Consider everything that has happened in our world since 2004. Has anything we’ve experienced in the last 20 years been predictable or accurately projected from that time period to now?” Preston said. “While county leadership should be mindful of trends or scientifically arrived at estimations, local governments must primarily focus on the here and now and the immediate needs of the communities they serve.”

While the future is important, planning for it “only happens by serving our citizens today,” Preston said.

“Today, we are not experiencing anything like the decline that’s been referenced here,” Preston said. “In fact, Bamberg County is experiencing a shortage of available housing for prospective buyers.”

“According to what area Realtors and our assessor are seeing right now in real time, there isn’t enough inventory on the market to meet demand and houses are selling as fast as they hit the market,” Preston said. “This, in turn, spurs area developers to build more homes and apartment complexes to meet the demand.”

Also, the county is “entertaining new industry prospects all the time,” he said.

“A growing housing market and incoming businesses could call into question any projections as far into the future,” Preston said.

“Additionally, a decline in population does not automatically equate to reductions in area investment or growth.”

Bamberg County and its municipalities are working together to attract new opportunities to the area, he said.

“None of us can look into crystal balls or turn to handwringing over projections so far into the future when the need to focus our resources and efforts exist in the county and community we are living in today,” Preston said.

Bamberg County’s population in 2020 was 13,311.

Bamberg County has seen its population decline over the past four consecutive decades. It reached a population high of 18,118 in 1980. The county’s population dropped 6.7 percent in 1990, 1.4 percent in 2000, 4 percent in 2010 and 16.7 percent in 2020.

It has dropped an estimated 2.5 percent from 2020 to July 1, 2023.

Bamberg County through July 2023 was the 44th most populous of the state’s 46 counties.

Projections

Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office Director of Data Integration and Analysis Division Chris Finney said the projections are based on recent trends in population estimates, births, deaths and migration.

“It may be that Orangeburg is on the verge of seeing population growth, but there is no way for the model to know that as the numbers that feed it have shown recent decline,” Finney said. “Population projections presented here are based on current trends and do not account for potential future developments or changes in policy, technology, or social behavior that could significantly alter these trends.”

Migration and the aging population are “playing a significant factor in in the growth/decline we are seeing in many parts of the state.”

He said population predictions should be interpreted as “indicative rather than definitive, providing a possible scenario of population changes under existing conditions.

“We will continue to update these projections as annual numbers on population estimates, births, deaths and migration are released.”

Other counties in the state are expected to see a population boom.

About 21 of the state’s 46 counties are projected to see an increase in population, with most of the growth being along the state’s coastal counties and in the Upstate.

Horry County, which is home to Myrtle Beach, is projected to see the largest percentage growth in the state over the next 18 years, increasing by 53 percent to a county total of 621,700. The county is also expected to see the largest numeric growth in the state during this time period.

Berkeley and Jasper counties are both expected to see a population increase of 51 percent through 2042, with Berkeley County’s population reaching 388,071 and Jasper’s population increasing to 50,977.

The most populous county in the state is projected to be Greenville with 718,139 residents, an increase of 27 percent.

The Midlands area of Columbia is projected to see more modest growth.

Richland County is projected to see a 6 percent population increase for a countywide total of 452,035. Lexington County is projected to see its population increase 13 percent for a countywide total of 350,359.

Statewide, the population continues to increase as part of an ongoing trend.

South Carolina saw the largest percentage population growth in the nation in 2023 at 1.7 percent.

The state saw about 90,600 new residents move into the area in 2023.

South Carolina had a slightly negative birth rate, with more deaths than births, so the population increase was entirely due to people moving to the state.

The growth continues what has been a trend in the state since 1980. Each decade since then has seen the state’s population growth exceed 10 percent.

The state’s population for the 2020 census was 5.1 million. On July 1, 2023, the state’s population was estimated to be about 5.4 million.

South Carolina currently ranks as the 23rd most populous state in the nation behind Minnesota and ahead of Alabama.